While I was beyond disappointed by the Trump victory, I always had a gut feeling it would come to pass, and I shared that with a few people. It seems we have come to a place in the U.S. where no matter how many things are going well, if something isn’t, we need to find someone to blame and make a change. We are at a time of the highest ever stock market (good for investors, 401-K retirees and public employees), record low unemployment, rising wages, falling rate of inflation, rising GDP, falling crime rates and even a reduction in border crossings.

But what people remember is that interest rates, home prices, rent, gasoline and food costs reached record lows during Trump’s last year in office when COVID had decimated the U.S. economy. They had to find a scapegoat for the inflation that followed the post-COVID economic surge, and that scapegoat was the Biden-Harris administration. If it hadn’t been inflation, it would have been some other perceived or actual misstep or inconvenience. COVID put Trump out of office his first term, and ironically, the economic recovery and inflation that followed put him back in office. I also have to believe that sexism and racism played an important role.

Not unlike the Republicans, the Democrats are saddled with a wide range of identity and interest extremes. If you are a Democrat but don’t agree with the administration’s position on the Middle East, for example, you either don’t vote or vote for the other guy for spite. Democratic voters have never been particularly strategic, valuing hewing to principles rather than seeing the big picture.

Figure 1 - "Food inflation is so bad that $100 grocery list in 2009 costs $137 today."

In any event, Trump is now president, and I can’t do anything about it, so I’m not going to agonize or worry about it. I survived four years of Trump when I was mayor of Richmond, a progressive Democratic stronghold, and we will survive this Trump administration.

On the local front, it was a mixed bag. Although many ballots have yet to be counted, most races are not close, and most of the results are not likely to change. With two of three RPA City Council candidates winning, my first thought was that the RPA  swept the table. But in fact, just the opposite was true. The RPA “Team Richmond” had four “official” candidates: Jimenez, Willis, and Wilson for City Council and Beckles for Senate, as well as Measure L. Three of those five lost. They also backed Otheree Christian for School Board, and at the November 6, 1:09 AM count, he was trailing Guadalupe Enllana by nearly 5 points, so that’s only two out of six wins – not exactly a stellar showing for the RPA.

I was happy that at least one RPA incumbent, Melvin Willis, appears to be on the way out, beaten handily by largely unknown (outside her district) Jamelia Brown. It’s hard to pinpoint the key to this victory, a seeming anomaly because local pundits gave Brown the least chance in three races to unseat an incumbent. When Brown first announced, her cousin, Demnlus Johnson, told me she would win because she grew up in the neighborhood and had more friends than Melvin Willis. Turns out he was spot on. Willis has grown more extreme and less communicative over the years, perhaps turning off some previous supporters.

Figure 2 - Jamelia Brown

Figure 3 - Melvin Willis

The victories of Claudia Jimenez and Sue Wilson also surprised me. They not only won but won by double-digit majority margins, indicating at first glance that the RPA is perhaps more solidly than ever embedded in Richmond. Finding the key to these victories is, however, elusive. The vast support of SEIU and other public employee unions and radical progressive organizations based outside of Richmond, like ACCE, is of course, one factor. Read Steve Early’s “Richmond Progressive Alliance’s Lessons for Local Organizers” to better understand the never ending laser-focused year-round campaign of the Richmond Progressive Alliance and its political allies.

I don’t think any candidate has ever worked harder than Shawn Dunning, but his emphasis on dispute resolution rather than taking aggressive stands on issues may have been his undoing. He didn’t decisively and successfully define the policy and issue differences between himself and his opponent. But with the RPA dominating the City Council race in Richmond, maybe even that would have made no difference.

I think Ahmad Anderson got hit with a triple whammy. The proportion of Black voters in his district has continued to decline, depriving him of a previously reliable base of support for any Black candidate. District 5 has, conversely, grown both whiter and more radically progressive in recent years, a disadvantage to Anderson. And, the Richmond Annex in District 5 has the largest concentration in Richmond of RPA supporters.

Ironically, Measure J has a substantial lead over Measure L, although they both enjoy majorities. The one with the higher vote count will win. This is also puzzling, because Measure L is an RPA-sponsored measure designed to be more RPA-friendly than Measure J. With the RPA running away with two of three City Council seats, why would voters support a measure designed to weaken the RPA grip on Richmond? Another mixed big mystery.

Another bright spot is Jesse Arreguin’s trending 60-40 victory over Jovanka Beckles for Senate District 7. Both are progressive candidates, but Beckles’ support is largely public employee unions while Arreguin enjoys wider appeal, including business interests. Arreguin campaigned as a “pragmatic progressive,” while Beckles touted her Democratic Socialist credentials, probably too extreme for the average voter.

While the Richmond race was dominated by the ultra progressives (RPA), Oakland and Alameda County voters appear to have buyers’ remorse and have recalled both Pamela Price and Oakland Mayor Sheng Tao, both extreme fringe progressives with ties to the RPA and public employees. One of the criticisms of Price was hiring her boyfriend Richmond resident Antwon Cloird for a six-figure salary with no competition, who will now be looking for a job.

The real losers in this election appear to be the moderates, with extremists from both sides setting the agendas.