Low turnout helped doom Chevron candidates in Richmond, but questions linger for 2016
By Robert Rogers Contra Costa Times
Posted: 11/29/14, 12:10 PM PST |
RICHMOND -- While Richmond commanded a national spotlight as a key battleground in the debate over unlimited campaign spending, voters in economically depressed neighborhoods collectively shrugged on Election Day, an apathy that likely helped tilt the city's balance of power.
And while the election results were interpreted by many as a rejection of Chevron Corp.'s campaign tactics, the turnout data indicate that many of the voters who might have been swayed by the oil giant's spending simply stayed home in a nonpresidential election year -- raising the question of whether such spending will be more effective in two years.
Low voter turnout not only helped doom mayoral candidate Nat Bates' shot at running the city but also had a hand in turning back Chevron's mighty refinery here, as its bankrolled candidates fell to a slate of progressives who focused their shoestring budgets on mobilizing voters rather than raining down advertisements.
Precinct data from the Contra Costa Elections Division reveal that the Richmond election, which drew national attention due to more than $3.1 million in spending by Chevron, may have been decided in part by a poor turnout in the city's lower-income precincts, which consist of voters that are typically more receptive to Chevron's economic message. That trend helped enlarge the voting power of more politically engaged communities.
Only 20,468 of the city's 41,777 registered voters cast ballots in the Nov. 4 election, well below the 34,000 who voted in 2012.
Mayor-elect Tom Butt acknowledged that the low turnout probably helped him and the "Team Richmond" slate of progressive City Council candidates, who swept into power and handed losses to every candidate backed by Chevron.
"My guess is that if the turnout had been a lot better, it would have been at the very least a neck-and-neck race or Nat (Bates) would have beat me," Butt said. "It was in my favor, the low turnout, but I will take it."
But the Chevron cadre may still have hope in 2016, when a presidential election should push more people to the polls. The key question is whether Chevron will follow the same big-money strategy, with negative attack ads and saturation of local airwaves, or focus more on a block-by-block strategy to increase turnout.
"My guess is that you'll see Chevron run different candidates and put more money into precinct workers," said John Ozenberger, a local campaign consultant who has followed Richmond elections since the 1970s. "They need boots on the ground."
A closer look at the precinct turnout, compiled in a series of maps by votertechnology.com, a consulting firm commissioned by the Richmond Small Business Association, shows a wide disparity between the city's whiter, more economically advantaged precincts and the inner-city neighborhoods that are more ethnically diverse and cash poor.
In past elections, those inner-city neighborhoods have shown more support for Bates, who is African-American, and have been less energized by the anti-corporate, pro-environment platform of progressives.
In the bayside precincts of Point Richmond, Marina Bay and the Richmond annex, voter turnout was generally higher than 60 percent. In the Iron Triangle and other "flatland" neighborhoods in the city's interior, the turnout was as low as 24 percent.
As the votes trickled in on election night and his prospects dimmed, Bates glumly assessed the situation.
"The African-American community doesn't turn out unless it's a national election," Bates said. "There was no Obama this year."
In the upscale Point Richmond precincts, Butt garnered more than 80 percent of the votes. In some Iron Triangle precincts, where turnout was low, Butt pulled as low as 18 percent. Bates did best in the district just southeast of the Iron Triangle, drawing 66 percent of the vote, but the overall turnout there was just 29 percent.
If the election drew 2012 numbers, and the heavily African-American and Latino precincts turned out in force as they did then, Richmond would probably have a different mayor, a possibility Butt readily acknowledged. When Bates and Butt both won re-election to the City Council in 2012, Bates was the top vote-getter by more than 200 votes.
Chevron-backed local candidates in general fared better in 2012. In addition to Bates garnering the most votes in the council race, Chevron-backed Gary Bell won the third contested council seat but died before he was able to take office.
Butt said it was widely known within campaign circles that Chevron was conducting regular, sophisticated polling in the weeks leading up to this year's election. Those polls showed Bates and the other Chevron-backed candidates doing well, and portended a strong showing on Nov. 4. But it didn't materialize on Election Day, stunning even those who had been closely monitoring data in the weeks prior.
Butt, a 70-year-old architect and Point Richmond resident who has taken a hard line on Chevron projects for years, won the mayor's race with 9,796 votes. Bates drew 6,883 votes.
The campaign managers Chevron hired through its independent expenditure committees focused on slick ads and attacks, running up big bills and garnering media attention, but generating little passion among the electorate.
"The progressives had the ground game, and with low turnout and backlash against the oil company, they shocked everybody," said Richard Poe, a local developer.
The result leaves the city with a council packed with progressives who have ridden to power in part on a platform critical of the state's second-largest oil refinery and the city's largest taxpayer.
As to whether Chevron might be able to reverse some of its losses in 2016, a key question may be who runs for president. Barack Obama's groundbreaking campaign and presidency helped drive turnout in Richmond in 2008 and 2012. Bates used Obama on many of his campaign materials -- but no one knows whether a nominee like that will emerge next time.
"It's no guarantee that higher turnout in 2016 means Chevron is going to do better," said Jael Myrick, the only council member to win who wasn't either attacked by Chevron or facing a Chevron-funded opponent. "They probably need to focus more on creating friends than enemies."
Contact Robert Rogers at 510-262-2726. Follow him at Twitter.com/sfbaynewsrogers.

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